You asked for (1) an estimate of the budget shortfall in the Department of Correction (DOC) in the current fiscal year (FY 09) and (2) a comparison of the Office of Policy and Management's prison population projections with the actual prison population.

The current estimated budget shortfall in DOC for FY 09 is $26.2 million - $32.4 million.

The low end of the range ($26.2 million) is based on the funds that the governor included in her Recommended Revised Budget for FY 09. These funds were also included in the Appropriations Committee Revised Budget for FY 09. Neither of these budgets, nor the funding included, was adopted by the General Assembly.

A breakdown of the governor's recommendations appears below in Table 1.

The upper end of the range ($32.4 million) is DOC's estimate of the shortfall and is based on its August 2008 financial projections for FY 09. The September estimate is not yet available. The largest area of shortfall is related to overtime for correctional staff which accounts for more than 90% of the shortfall in Personal Services. The remainder of the shortfall relates to various expense items.

DOC indicates that the Office of Policy and Management (OPM) may make funds available to offset the deficiency, although such provisions will not be decided until later in the fiscal year. These additional funds could total $6.0 million - $7.0 million from the Reserve for Salary Adjustment account and $3.0 million - $4.0 million from the Energy Contingency account.

The OPM Criminal Justice Policy and Planning Division is statutorily required to develop annual population projections for Connecticut's prison system.

In its first annual report in 2007, the division provided two different prison population estimates assuming no major changes in criminal justice policies: one based on a five-year trend and one based on a 20-year trend. Based on the five-year trend, it projected that the prison population would remain relatively stable if practices remained constant and would be 18,703 inmates in 2012. Based on the 20-year trend, it projected the prison population could increase to 23,229 by December 2012. For January 1, 2008, based on the five-year trend, the division projected a prison population of 18,827. The actual prison population on January 1, 2008 was 19,438 or 3.2% above the projection. Based on the 20-year trend, the division projected a prison population of 20,230 on January 1, 2008. The actual prison population on January 1, 2008 was 3.9% below this projection. For October 9, 2008, the actual prison population was 19,584 or 4.0% above the five-year projection and 3.2% below the 20-year projection.

In its 2008 annual report, the division stated that events in the past year led to changes in legislation and practice that invalidated its 2007 projections. The report noted that these recent changes had significant effects with more changes anticipated. The report stated that this made it imprudent to make extended predictions or forecasts and the report only projected the prison population through January 1, 2009. The report stated that the “prison population has begun to decrease and is expected to continue to decline to a facility population of 18,849 by January 1, 2009 as recent initiatives and legislative changes take effect.” Compared to the monthly projections for April through September of 2008, the actual prison population measured on the first of each month varied from 1.1% to 2.2% above the division's projections.

In addition to the annual reports, the division's Correction Population Indicators Monthly Report, which has been published monthly since November 2006, includes six month prison population projections. We have not compared the projections in each of these reports to the actual prison population.

OPM's Criminal Justice Policy and Planning Division provided two different population estimates in its first annual report in 2007. According to Linda DiConti, research unit manager for the division, the population projections are based on January 1 of each year. Table 3 displays the two projections for January 1, 2008 compared to the actual prison population on that date.

Table 4 displays the two projections for January 1, 2008 compared to the actual prison population on a recent date, October 9, 2008.

Table 5 shows all of the projections in the report, based on January 1 of each year.

The report reached the following conclusions:

1. prison population fluctuations were caused by policy changes within the criminal justice system;

2. changes in the accused population have more immediate effects on the prison population but the significant increase in the prison population is primarily due to increases in the sentenced population;

3. the increase in the number of inmates released on parole, in halfway houses, and re-entry furlough appears to be related to the recent stabilization of the prison population that had occurred; and

4. three factors were found to have a significant effect on the prison population, the number of people (a) arraigned, (b) arraigned with charges requiring them to serve 85% of their prison sentence if convicted, and (c) sentenced to prison.

The report concluded that Connecticut's prison population increases are not driven by changes in crime, the overall population, population demographics, or other common misconceptions. Rather it attributed prison growth to the policy choices and practices that sent more offenders to prison to serve longer periods of time. The report states that legislation passed from the late 1980s through the mid-1990s led to a cumulative effect on Connecticut's prison population.

In 2008, the division's annual report stated that events in the past year led to changes in legislation and practice that invalidated its 2007 projections. These included the July 2007 home invasion in Cheshire that led to an assessment of the criminal justice system. The report stated that the recent changes had significant effects and, with more changes anticipated, making extended predictions or forecasts was imprudent. Thus, the 2008 report projected the prison population through January 1, 2009.

The 2008 forecast stated that the “prison population has begun to decrease and is expected to continue to decline to a facility population of 18,849 by January 1, 2009 as recent initiatives and legislative changes take effect.”

Following in table 6 are the population projection figures used in the annual report. Linda DeConti, research unit manager for the division, provided us with these figures, which formed the basis for the charts in the annual report.

The report used five-year trends to make its projections. According to the report, the projections are based on the following:

1. the total DOC supervised population has remained stable,

2. the unsentenced and accused population has declined,

3. legislation provided funding for an additional 270 re-entry and diversionary beds;

4. DOC expects transitional supervision placements to increase to 1,200; and

5. the Board of Pardons and Paroles believes parole supervision placements may increase to over 2,800.

The report also lists other initiatives that may affect the prison population.

The 2008 report states that the following changes in legislation and practice invalidated the forecasting model assumptions in the 2007 annual report.

1. New legislation changed penalties for certain offenses by streamlining persistent offender laws; enhancing penalties for burglary; and creating a new home invasion crime.

2. New practices limited the parole granting rate through the governor's directive temporarily banning parole for violent offenders.

3. New legislation eliminated granting parole by administrative review and established full-time parole board members.

4. New legislation lengthened prison sentences by restricting the use of re-entry furloughs.

5. New legislation re-allocated funding and provided new resources that, among other things, increased staffing and added new divisionary beds.

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