Education Spending and Mastery Test Results

Topic:
EDUCATIONAL TESTING; SCHOOL FINANCE;
Location:
EDUCATION - TESTING;


January 16, 2004		2004-R-0005
EDUCATION SPENDING AND MASTERY TEST RESULTS

By: Alan Shepard, Principal Budget Analyst Judith Lohman, Chief Analyst

You asked several questions about Connecticut's per-pupil education spending and its correlation with mastery test results. Questions and responses are listed individually below.

Is it true that Connecticut ranked third among all states and the District of Columbia in per-pupil spending on K-12 public education for 2002-03? How has Connecticut's ranking changed over the last five years?

It is true that Connecticut ranked third in per-pupil K-12 public education spending in FY 2002-03. In each annual ranking of such spending by the 50 states and the District of Columbia since 1998, Connecticut has been among the top four. Table 1 below shows Connecticut's per-pupil expenditure and rank for each of the last five years, as well as the states that ranked above Connecticut in each year.

Table 1: Connecticut's Annual Per-Pupil Education Spending Rankings 1998-2003

*YEAR*	*CT. PER-PUPIL* *SPENDING*	*CT. RANK*	*STATES RANKING* *HIGHER THAN CT.*
1998-99	$10,748	4	New Jersey (1), New York (2), D.C. (3)
1999-00	11,196	3	D.C. (1) New Jersey (2)
2000-01	10,258	4	D.C. (1) New Jersey (2) New York (3)
2001-02	11,048	2	D.C. (1)
2002-03	11,378	3	D.C. (1) New York (2)

Sources: 1998-99 and 1999-00, National Center for Education Statistics

2000-01 through 2002-03, National Education Association

What has been the long-term trend in per-pupil spending in Connecticut over the last 30 years on a nominal and inflation-adjusted basis?

The earliest data for per-pupil spending in Connecticut currently available is from the 1979-80 school year. In that year, the net current expenditure per-pupil¹ (NCEP) was $2,091. The latest NCEP data for the 2002-03 school year shows per-pupil spending at $9,826. The change is a 369% increase over that period. Over that same period, the change in consumer prices (inflation) was 135%. If per-pupil spending had increased at the same rate as inflation, per-pupil spending would now be $4,913.

What is the correlation between per-pupil spending and Connecticut mastery test results in each school district and for the state as a whole? Provide a list ranking each school district by test results and per-pupil spending.

Statistically, there is no correlation between per-pupil spending and student performance on the mastery exams. Utilizing data from the 1999-2000 school year and a simple regression analysis, less than 5% of the variation in test scores across school districts is explained by per-pupil spending. In fact, rather than the causal direction being more spending resulting in better performance, this data shows the reverse.

Student performance is more accurately predicted by factors outside the school system. Specifically, the best predictors of student performance are the educational attainment of the parents and whether the child comes from a single parent family or not. Nearly 80% of the variation in test results across districts can be explained using these data elements. Thus, one would theorize that towns that have higher educational attainment among parents and a lower percentage of single-parent families have better mastery exam results.

Table 2 shows per-pupil spending and mastery exam results along with associated ranks for the 1999-2000 school year.

Table 2: District Per-Pupil Spending And Mastery Exam Results

1999-2000

*TOWN*	*GRANT MASTERY* *PERCENTAGE* *(1999/2000/01)*	*RANK*	*NCEP* *2000*	*RANK*
Andover	7.06%	98	$7,543	135
Ansonia	16.30%	155	7,501	136
Ashford	10.88%	133	8,204	78
Avon	1.52%	1	8,166	83
Barkhamsted	4.63%	50	8,278	71
Beacon Falls	5.12%	61	7,091	160
Berlin	4.66%	52	7,552	134
Bethany	5.73%	73	7,864	107
Bethel	6.03%	81	8,278	72
Bethlehem	5.67%	71	8,032	93
Bloomfield	17.70%	159	9,091	37
Bolton	3.11%	19	8,101	86
Bozrah	7.64%	107	8,460	64
Branford	4.64%	51	7,960	100
Bridgeport	29.52%	166	8,431	66
Bridgewater	3.10%	17	10,118	11
Bristol	13.83%	149	7,775	114
Brookfield	5.71%	72	7,148	155
Brooklyn	10.92%	134	7,858	108
Burlington	3.70%	31	7,867	105
Canaan	5.17%	63	$11,246	2
Canterbury	10.29%	131	8,132	84
Canton	4.66%	53	7,632	125
Chaplin	14.47%	150	9,011	40
Cheshire	2.95%	13	8,079	88
Chester	3.84%	35	8,873	44
Clinton	8.01%	111	8,811	45
Colchester	7.28%	100	6,669	169
Colebrook	10.41%	132	8,678	52
Columbia	7.73%	108	7,376	147
Cornwall	6.76%	93	9,303	29
Coventry	8.87%	121	7,041	163
Cromwell	5.66%	70	8,043	91
Danbury	16.95%	156	8,336	69
Darien	2.80%	9	9,839	18
Deep River	6.65%	92	8,176	81
Derby	15.73%	154	7,474	137
Durham	3.19%	20	8,726	47
East Granby	7.57%	104	8,487	61
East Haddam	8.20%	113	8,100	87
East Hampton	5.91%	78	7,742	117
East Hartford	20.88%	162	7,993	96
East Haven	12.75%	141	7,656	123
East Lyme	4.72%	56	7,974	99
East Windsor	9.92%	128	7,745	116
Eastford	10.09%	130	8,926	42
Easton	2.74%	8	9,122	35
Ellington	3.77%	32	7,438	142
Enfield	6.82%	94	8,117	85
Essex	4.00%	38	8,056	90
Fairfield	3.79%	33	9,683	20
Farmington	3.11%	18	7,654	124
Franklin	8.54%	117	9,015	39
Glastonbury	2.87%	11	7,456	139
Goshen	2.45%	6	9,290	30
Granby	4.22%	43	7,782	113
Greenwich	4.67%	54	$11,648	1
Griswold	12.89%	143	8,468	63
Groton	11.11%	135	9,097	36
Guilford	3.56%	29	8,191	79
Haddam	6.03%	82	8,561	57
Hamden	15.71%	153	9,320	28
Hampton	7.76%	109	9,484	22
Hartford	27.42%	164	11,035	5
Hartland	6.14%	87	7,579	131
Harwinton	3.55%	28	7,867	106
Hebron	3.43%	25	7,404	144
Kent	4.60%	49	8,913	43
Killingly	11.93%	138	7,611	127
Killingworth	4.20%	42	8,561	58
Lebanon	7.30%	102	7,585	130
Ledyard	7.94%	110	7,181	154
Lisbon	5.15%	62	7,392	146
Litchfield	4.34%	45	7,789	111
Lyme	5.32%	65	9,347	26
Madison	3.03%	15	7,371	148
Manchester	13.12%	144	8,183	80
Mansfield	6.11%	86	9,466	25
Marlborough	4.67%	55	7,444	141
Meriden	18.28%	161	8,207	77
Middlebury	4.05%	39	7,670	121
Middlefield	5.37%	67	8,726	48
Middletown	13.20%	145	9,239	33
Milford	6.06%	84	8,593	55
Monroe	3.97%	36	7,607	128
Montville	8.95%	122	8,175	82
Morris	3.99%	37	9,290	31
Naugatuck	14.98%	152	6,927	165
New Britain	27.20%	163	8,377	67
New Canaan	3.23%	21	10,394	7
New Fairfield	4.85%	58	7,705	118
New Hartford	5.28%	64	8,478	62
New Haven	33.66%	169	$10,801	6
New London	30.63%	167	10,176	9
New Milford	7.55%	103	7,133	157
Newington	6.43%	89	8,230	75
Newtown	3.35%	23	7,126	158
Norfolk	8.71%	118	10,002	15
North Branford	4.87%	59	7,305	151
North Canaan	7.01%	96	9,469	24
North Haven	4.06%	40	7,941	103
North Stonington	7.29%	101	8,369	68
Norwalk	17.34%	157	9,916	16
Norwich	11.84%	137	8,809	46
Old Lyme	3.53%	27	9,347	27
Old Saybrook	6.00%	80	8,035	92
Orange	3.59%	30	8,717	49
Oxford	6.91%	95	7,957	101
Plainfield	13.50%	147	7,830	109
Plainville	7.15%	99	8,265	73
Plymouth	9.39%	123	7,696	119
Pomfret	5.95%	79	6,817	167
Portland	4.58%	48	7,942	102
Preston	8.11%	112	9,217	34
Prospect	5.77%	76	7,091	161
Putnam	17.48%	158	8,536	59
Redding	3.48%	26	9,889	17
Ridgefield	2.37%	5	8,611	54
Rocky Hill	4.34%	44	8,435	65
Roxbury	5.76%	75	10,118	12
Salem	7.59%	105	7,572	133
Salisbury	2.83%	10	9,584	21
Scotland	13.51%	148	8,929	41
Seymour	6.52%	91	7,470	138
Sharon	5.61%	69	10,047	14
Shelton	6.49%	90	7,769	115
Sherman	3.04%	16	7,184	153
Simsbury	1.63%	2	7,632	126
Somers	5.33%	66	$7,900	104
South Windsor	4.92%	60	7,398	145
Southbury	2.53%	7	7,670	122
Southington	6.07%	85	7,791	110
Sprague	12.76%	142	7,192	152
Stafford	8.21%	115	8,002	95
Stamford	17.82%	160	10,179	8
Sterling	11.49%	136	7,573	132
Stonington	8.32%	116	8,209	76
Stratford	9.54%	124	7,989	97
Suffield	4.54%	47	6,902	166
Thomaston	8.83%	120	7,114	159
Thompson	12.13%	139	7,422	143
Tolland	4.46%	46	6,931	164
Torrington	9.89%	127	7,591	129
Trumbull	3.35%	24	7,785	112
Union	2.95%	14	7,357	149
Vernon	8.81%	119	8,563	56
Voluntown	9.98%	129	7,357	150
Wallingford	5.54%	68	7,673	120
Warren	2.28%	4	9,290	32
Washington	9.88%	126	10,118	13
Waterbury	27.50%	165	9,071	38
Waterford	4.16%	41	9,721	19
Watertown	4.84%	57	7,134	156
West Hartford	6.04%	83	8,488	60
West Haven	13.28%	146	8,248	74
Westbrook	5.74%	74	7,979	98
Weston	3.31%	22	11,065	4
Westport	2.87%	12	11,144	3
Wethersfield	5.81%	77	8,281	70
Willington	8.21%	114	8,704	50
Wilton	1.79%	3	8,624	53
Winchester	12.52%	140	9,480	23
Windham	31.71%	168	10,162	10
Windsor	14.57%	151	8,079	89
Windsor Locks	9.70%	125	7,451	140
Wolcott	7.63%	106	$6,678	168
Woodbridge	3.80%	34	8,700	51
Woodbury	6.28%	88	8,032	94
Woodstock	7.05%	97	7,049	162

AS/JL:ro

¹ Net current expenditures per-pupil differ from total expenditures per-pupil by not counting expenditures for school transportation, capital equipment or tuition receipts for out-of-district students.