CHAPTER THREE

Offender Population and Sentencing Trends

The incarcerated offender population in Connecticut has steadily and substantially grown. From 1985 to 2000, the average daily prison population rose from 5,813 to 17,466, an increase of 200 percent. Throughout most of the past 15 years, the prison system has routinely operated at or over capacity.

The total offender population supervised in the community (i.e., probation, parole, and DOC community release programs) has grown comparably. Currently, there are about 58,000 offenders on probation, almost 1,600 on parole, and another 1,300 in the community under DOC supervision (i.e., transitional supervision, furlough, and halfway house release). Added to that are the thousands of accused offenders in the community on bond awaiting disposition of criminal charges, sentencing, or an appeal.

The program review committee staff obtained data from criminal justice agencies and the judicial branch regarding criminal convictions and prison sentences. Crime rates in the state were examined. Caseload information from the agencies providing custody or supervision services was also reviewed. This section presents an analysis of the incarcerated and community supervised criminal offender population and prison sentencing trends in Connecticut.

Crime Rates

In Connecticut, the crime rate for major crimes has dropped significantly -- showing a decrease each year since 1990. Major crimes include the violent offenses of murder, manslaughter, sexual assault, and robbery, and the property crimes of burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. The analysis presented below is based on reported crimes, and not all crimes are reported to the police.

Figure III-1 shows the trend in reported index crimes, which are the offenses tracked by the federal and state governments for the annual Uniform Crime Report. The index crimes are categorized as violent and property crimes. Drug crimes are not included as part of the index crime rate.

Overall, the rate of reported index crimes dropped 37 percent since 1989. The reduction is primarily driven by a decrease in reported property crimes, which declined from a high of 159,160 offenses in 1991 to 99,658 in 1999. The crime rate for reported violent crimes has not shown as dramatic a decrease as property crimes. Violent crimes, however, have similarly decreased 37 percent from 17,853 in 1991 to 11,380 in 1999.

Since not all reported crimes lead to an arrest, the number of persons arrested is a more accurate measure of the potential pool of inmates who may be transferred to the custody of the Department of Correction. A person can be arrested more than once during a year and over the 10-year period under analysis. Each arrest is counted separately.

Figure III-2 tracks the number of persons 18 and older arrested for all types of crimes, including violent, property, and drug offenses. The number of arrestees decreased during the past decade. In 1990, 190,413 arrests were made. The total dropped to 145,521 in 1998 -- a decrease of 24 percent. (The data for the number of persons arrested in 1999 are not yet available.)

It is important to note the decrease in both the crime and arrest rates began five years before the prison expansion project was completed and the "truth in sentencing" initiatives were adopted. This trend supports the conclusion the reduction in crime is caused by several factors, which will be discussed in Chapter 5, and not simply the result of adding more prison beds or increasing the time served in prison.

Criminal Offender Population

Total offender population. Figure III-3 tracks the trend in the total Connecticut offender population from 1989 through 1999. The totals represent the average yearly prison population (pre-trial and sentenced offenders) and the caseloads for DOC community release programs, parole, and probation. The prison population and probation caseloads continuously climbed over the past 12 years. DOC community release caseloads decreased after the department's supervised home release program was abolished and parole supervision was transferred to the Board of Parole in 1993. After 1993, parole caseloads increased, but have not risen to the number of offenders in the community on supervised home release.

Currently, almost 19,000 offenders are under the supervision of DOC in prison or in the community. The total supervised population dipped in 1995 after new beds were added during the prison expansion project, but began to increase as those beds were filled. The most recent increase came after the 1995 "truth in sentencing" reforms took effect.

Figure III-4 tracks the trend in the number of defendants (or accused offenders) released from custody on bond by state or local police at the time of arrest, the bail commission prior to arraignment, or the court at arraignment. A defendant may be counted more than once in a year or over a span of years since he or she can be arrested more than once. For each arrest, a defendant can post bond if he or she is eligible.

It is important to track the number of defendants released on bond because they have potential to impact the prison population. A defendant who has posted bail can be returned to custody for a violation of bond conditions, failure to appear in court, committing a new crime, or if convicted and given a prison sentence. This population is the pool from which the prison population is ultimately drawn.

The number of people released from custody on bond bottomed out in 1994. Interestingly that is the year the prison expansion project was completed, which added many new beds to the prison system.

Then number of defendants on bond increased until 1998, when it decreased 20 percent to about 130,000 from a high of over 160,000. (Statistics for 1999 have not been released yet by the judicial branch.)

Incarcerated population. The Department of Correction operates a unified system that houses accused defendants awaiting adjudication who could not post bond, are ineligible for bond, forfeited bond by failing to appear in court, and sentenced offenders. Figure III-5 shows the breakdown between the pre-trial and sentenced population in prison or jail. The total incarcerated population increased, but as a percentage the pre-trial population remained stable. In each of the past 12 years, approximately 20 percent of the prison and jail population was in pre-trial status.

Community supervision population. Figure III-6 shows the breakdown between the incarcerated inmate population and the inmates supervised under a community release program. Since the early 1990s, the number of inmates transferred from prison to an early release, community supervision program has dramatically decreased from a high of almost 7,000 inmates in 1991 to less than 1,500 in 2000. This 79 percent decrease in the community supervision population is a major cause of the rising prison and jail population.

There are two factors impacting this shift in the population. First, the Department of Correction undertook a major prison expansion project in the early 1990s, which added almost 9,000 new beds. This allowed more offenders to be incarcerated and accounts for much of the population increase through 1995. The available bed space reduced the need for and reliance on early release programs. Since 1995, the department has not significantly increased its prison bed capacity and is currently experiencing overcrowding at the jails.

Second, the 1995 "truth in sentencing" reform increased time-served standards that make offenders eligible for early release options, narrowed community release eligibility, and eliminated "good time." The policies require inmates to serve more time in prison prior to release and have also made more inmates ineligible for release because of the type of offenses they were convicted of or prior poor performance or failure on community release. Conservative release practices of both DOC and the parole board have also contributed to the decrease in inmates being released to the community.

Figure III-7 breaks down the department's use of community release programs -- supervised home release, transitional supervision, parole, and furloughs and halfway house placements. It also tracks the decline in the overall use of community release options.

The parole totals only include Connecticut inmates released from prison and supervised in- or out-of-state. Out-of-state inmates supervised in Connecticut are not included because they do not impact the Connecticut prison population. If the parole of an out-of-state inmate is revoked, he or she returns to the state correctional system from which he or she was paroled.

It is important to note that in 1993, parole supervision responsibility was transferred from DOC to the Board of Parole. The board now has the authority to release an inmate from prison to parole and to return him or her to prison for a parole violation. The Department of Correction, however, is responsible for incarcerating those remanded parolees.

After hitting an all time low of about 2,000 inmates in 1995 -- the year of the "truth in sentencing" reforms -- early releases increased and then stabilized over the past four years. Currently, there are less than 3,000 inmates released from prison under TS, parole, furloughs, or halfway house programs.

As shown in Figure III-7, SHR was the primary early release mechanism until it was statutorily eliminated. The decrease in its use in 1992, 1993, and 1994 tracks the required phase-out of the program. Parole and TS then became the main early release options, however, these programs have not released as many inmates as SHR, which hit an all-time high of almost 6,000 inmates in 1992. DOC's use of furloughs and halfway houses increased slightly primarily as a result of added community-based beds and resources.

Crimes

The program review committee staff analyzed offense data for inmates sentenced to prison from the Department of Correction from January 1992 through July 2000. An inmate may be convicted of more than one offense for each admission to prison. It is not known from the data, however, the total number of offenses per admission. DOC provided the primary offense for each admission -- in most cases the most serious crime for which the inmate was convicted. For the purpose of this analysis, the specific offenses were grouped into six categories:

• drug: sale, possession, and manufacturing of paraphernalia, narcotic, hallucinogenic, and other illegal drugs and substances;
• property: larceny, burglary, forgery, and criminal trespass;
• violent: murder, manslaughter, arson, assault, sexual assault, kidnapping, robbery, and any conviction of the persistent offender statutes;
• motor vehicle (MV): driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs, driving with a suspended license, and any other motor vehicle offense;
• violation of probation (VOP): violation of probation¹, escape, and failure to appear in court; and
• other: possession or carrying weapon, risk of injury, prostitution, bribery, stalking, harassment, disorderly conduct, inciting or participating in a riot at a correctional facility, criminal liability, conspiracy, or criminal attempt to commit a crime, or any other offense.

An admission represents an individual inmate placed in the custody of DOC as a sentence. However, an inmate can be admitted more than once during a year or during the nine year period. Therefore, the number of admissions, not inmates, are counted.

Figure III-8 represents the percentage of admissions to DOC under each crime category for 1992 through 1999. Overall, the breakdown between the crime categories for which offenders are convicted and sentenced to prison has not changed significantly during the past eight years. Violation of probation, which also includes escapes and failure to appear in court convictions, represents the highest percentage (about one quarter each year) of admissions. Drug and property crimes are the next most frequent types, at about 18 percent of the total admissions to DOC. The remaining crime categories, including violent crimes, account for about 12 percent each.

Figure III-9 shows the trend in the number of admissions to the department for convictions for drug, property, and violent crimes. The trend in the number of offenders convicted and sentenced to prison for drug offenses shows a consistent increase over the eight-year period. The trends in admissions for property and violent crime both decreased between 1992 and 1993, but have since remained stable. Any increases in the numbers have not been significant, especially when compared to the rise in admissions to DOC for drug crimes.

Criminal Sentencing Trends

The following analysis examines trends in the length of court-imposed sentences. The differences in sentence lengths between inmates admitted to DOC before and after the 1995 "truth in sentencing" reform were also compared.

Table III-1 shows the length of court-imposed sentences for all convicted offenders admitted to DOC during the past eight years. As discussed in Chapter 1, the court orders several types of sentences. This analysis focuses only on those given a sentence to prison -- requiring the offender be admitted to DOC for a fixed period of time.

Almost 70 percent of all admissions have been sentenced to three years or less, with most of those (47 percent) for one year or less. Five percent of admissions were for sentences greater than 10 years.

The program review committee staff reviewed the sentencing data to determine any trends or changes in the length of court-imposed sentences before and after the 1995 "truth in sentencing" reform and the completion of the prison expansion project in 1994. The two time periods under analysis include 1992 through 1995 and 1996 through 1999; each a four-year period.

For the purposes of the analysis, prison terms imposed by the court were categorized by length. The four categories were: (1) one year or less; (2) greater than a year up to five years; (3) greater than five years up to 10 years; and (4) more than 10 years, which includes life sentences and death penalties.

Figure III-10 tracks the average sentence length for convicted offenders admitted to DOC for each year from 1992 through 1999. The proportion of admissions under a sentence of one year or less dominates the total, representing over three-quarters of the admissions in each year. The next largest proportion of admissions is for sentences greater then a year up to five years -- about 15 percent of the total. The graphic shows the total number of admissions decreases as the sentence lengths get longer.

The graphic also shows the total number of admissions bottomed out in 1993 and steadily increased through 1998. Admissions slightly decreased (5 percent) in 1999.

The greatest increase in sentence length (50 percent) was in sentences of more than five years up to 10 years, which grew from 671 in 1992 to 1,011 in 1999. Admissions under a sentence of more than one year up to five years increased 33 percent (2,705 in 1992 to 3,601 in 1999). Most recently, admissions under a sentence of one year or less decreased 8 percent from a high of 17,326 in 1998 to 15,969 in 1999.

A comparison of the total number of admissions for all sentence categories before and after the 1995 sentencing reform shows almost a 20 percent increase after "truth in sentencing" was enacted (1996 through 1999). Admissions for shorter prison terms (five years or less) increased 32 percent and longer terms (greater than five years) increased 18 percent after the 1995 sentence reform.

However, the percentage breakdown for each sentence category shows no major change in the prison terms imposed by the court over the past eight years. The most notable differences are the percentage of admissions under a sentence of more than one year up to five years, which increased from 14 percent in 1992 to over 17 percent of the total in 1999. This trend suggests the court has not significantly changed its sentencing practices in imposing prison terms.

Figure III-11 shows the average sentence imposed (in months) for each of the crime categories analyzed. As expected, violent crimes received the longest prison sentences -- 72 months or six years. The average sentence for drug offenses was 47 months (almost four years). Property crimes received an average sentence of 24 months and motor vehicle offenses eight months. The average court-imposed sentence for a violation of probation, which also includes failure to appear in court, was 27 months; all other crimes averaged 34 months.

Figure III-12 tracks the average sentence (in months) for drug, property, and violent crimes over an eight-year period. The average sentence for a violent crime peaked in 1994 at 86 months. The average sentence length has since been decreasing -- to 78 months in 1996 and 56 months in 1999.

Sentences for drug crimes decreased during the early- to mid-1990s, but rose in 1997 and 1998. For the past two years, the average sentence imposed by the court remained at about 46 months. From 1992 through 1999, the sentence for property crimes has not shown any significant change -- averaging almost 24 months.

Figure III-13 tracks the average sentence (in months) for a violation of probation, motor vehicle, and other types of offenses. The average prison term for a violation of probation steadily increased each year from 19 months in 1992 to 33 months in 1998, and has since leveled off at around 31 months. From 1992 to 1998, motor vehicle crimes generally received six to seven month sentences, except during 1995 when the sentence length rose to 11 months and dropped back in 1996. In 1999, sentence length grew to 9 months, and through the first half of 2000, it is 12 months. The increased sentence length correlates to sentencing changes in state law regarding motor vehicle offenses for driving while under the influence of alcohol or drugs.

The range of crimes included in the other category varies year-to-year. Based on the DOC database, however, Figure III-13 shows the average sentence for all other types of crime reached a high of 41 months in 1994 and has consistently decreased over the past six years. In 2000, the average sentence is 23 months

Figure III-14 shows the average sentence for each type of crime before and after the 1995 "truth in sentencing" reform. The average sentences for property, motor vehicle, and violation of probation offenses have gotten longer. Violation of probation sentences have had the largest increase (almost 50 percent). Sentences for drug crimes have not significantly changed -- decreasing from 48 months prior to the reform to 47 months.

Prison sentences for violent and all other crimes have also gotten shorter. The average sentence for a violent crime, which includes murder, manslaughter, sexual assault, kidnapping, robbery, and arson has decreased 15 percent from 77 months (or slightly more than 6 years) during the period before sentencing reform to 67 months (or almost five and a half years) in the period after sentencing reform. For all other crimes such as possession or carrying a weapon, risk of injury, stalking, rioting, disorderly conduct, prostitution, criminal liability, conspiracy, and criminal attempt, the average prison sentence has decreased 13 percent from 36 months to 32 months.

Overall, the average sentence for all types of crime has not changed between the two periods under analysis -- before and after the 1995 sentencing reform. The average sentence has remained at about 15 months. However, a slight increase in the sentence length multiplied by the thousands of offenders sent to prison results in a sizable increase in the DOC population. The impact becomes even greater when the time-served standards are factored in -- inmates must serve a larger portion of their sentence in prison.

¹ A violation of probation conviction means an offender was originally convicted of a crime and sentenced to a period of probation either in lieu of a prison term or to be served after a prison term. During the period of probation supervision, the offender violated a court-ordered condition of release or committed another crime and was convicted and ordered to complete the original sentence or received a new sentence.

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