You asked for an estimate of the potential fiscal impact on Connecticut Indian gaming revenue from the establishment of casinos in Massachusetts and New York.

This legislation could reduce Indian gaming payments to the state by up to 36% or approximately $ 137. 0 million annually. ¹ The timing of the revenue loss is dependent upon the date on which the casinos become fully operable.

This estimate assumes that: 1) any casinos established in Massachusetts or New York will be substantially similar to those at the Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun resorts; 2) economic conditions will remain generally positive through at least FY 16; 3) approximately 86% of current Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun patrons living in Massachusetts, northern New England, and New York would substitute Massachusetts or New York casinos for Connecticut casinos; 4) all current Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun patrons living in Connecticut and New Jersey do not substitute Massachusetts or New York casinos for Connecticut casinos; 5) the establishment of additional casinos in Massachusetts and New York will not increase the total pool of casino patrons; and 6) any casinos established in Massachusetts and New York are fully operable by the first day of the Connecticut fiscal year in which they are established.

The revenue loss estimates are based on data from Center for Policy Analysis at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth indicating that approximately 41. 0% and 34. 8% of Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun patrons, respectively, are from Massachusetts or New York, and an additional 4. 8% (Foxwoods) and 2. 7% (Mohegan Sun) are from Maine, New Hampshire, or Vermont. Data from the Center also indicate that approximately 86% of patrons would no longer frequent out-of-state casinos if similar casinos were established in-state.

I hope that you find this information helpful. Please contact me if you have any questions or need further assistance.

¹ The out-years (FY 14-16) of the October 14, 2011 Consensus Revenue Estimates produced jointly by OFA and the Office of Policy and Management form the basis for determining the magnitude of revenue loss. It is assumed that any Massachusetts or New York casinos would not be operable until FY 14 at the earliest.