You asked if data shows any changes in accidents involving 16- and 17-year old drivers since adoption of special requirements for teen drivers.

SUMMARY

The driver’s licensing law for 16- and 17-year olds was initially changed in 1996 to require them to get a learner’s permit and drive under instruction under the permit for a minimum of 180 days before they could qualify for a driver’s license granting unrestricted driving privileges. By the time this requirement went into effect on January 1, 1997, the permit holding period was reduced to a minimum of 120 days for those teens receiving driving instruction through drivers education programs or commercial driving schools. The number of hours of behind-the-wheel on-the-road instruction for teens getting training through drivers education or commercial instruction was also increased from six to eight hours. Also, the law prohibited 16- and 17-year olds from driving on limited access highways for the first 60 days they held their permits (or the first 30 days if they were receiving commercial instruction).

The legislature added additional requirements and restrictions for 16- and 17-year olds in 2003—principal among them a restriction on the number of passengers newly-licensed 16- and 17-year olds could carry during their first six months of licensure.

This report provides information on the changes in at-fault accidents experienced by teen drivers subject to the learner’s permit requirement implemented in 1997. It does not examine any effects of the 2003 changes that went into effect earlier this year. There is still no Department of Transportation (DOT) accident data available to assess any effects because not enough time has passed since the changes on passenger restrictions went into effect.

DOT accident data for the period from 1997 through 2002 show a fairly significant decrease in the total number of accidents involving 16-year old drivers for which they were found responsible compared to 1996. “At-fault” accidents for 16-year old drivers declined from 1,947 in 1996 (the year before the learner’s permit requirement), to 1,486 in 1997 and 1,244 in 1998—a decline of just over 36% over the 1996 level. Although the number of 16-year old driver at-fault accidents has risen slightly again since 1998, it still is well below the 1996 level (1,570 at-fault accidents in 2002). The number of at-fault accidents for 17-year old drivers, who are also subject to the learner’s permit and other requirements implemented in 1997 if they are getting their initial license at that age, has not fallen since 1996. They, in fact, increased slightly by just over 5% in 1998 and, as of 2002, are about 25% higher than in 1996 (2,938 in 2002 compared to 2,375 in 1996).

While the absolute number of at-fault accidents for 16-year old drivers has clearly decreased beginning in 1997, the best available information on the number of licensed 16-year olds suggests that this decrease could, in fact, be due to a significant decrease in the number of licensed 16-year olds since 1996. Connecticut license data available through the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) suggests that the number of 16-year old licensees dropped significantly between 1996 and 1998 (from 17,836 in 1996 to 9,086 in 1998) and has remained at the lower levels (approximately 7,500 to 9,500 ever since). We asked the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) to verify if the 1996 FHWA licensing numbers for 16-year olds were accurate and, although they came up with a slightly smaller estimate for 1996 (16,750 licenses), it appears close enough to the FHWA figure to corroborate the approximate size of the licensing pool at that time. Thus, if the post-1996 FHWA licensing data for 16-year olds accurately reflects what has occurred in Connecticut, the decrease in at-fault accidents may really be due to a large decrease in licensed 16-year olds. This might have been the result of the learner’s permit requirement delaying some licensing decisions for 16-year olds or it might have been coincidental. The number of licensed 17-, 18, and 19-year olds has not changed significantly since 1996.

Thus, while there clearly has been a significant decrease in the absolute number of at-fault accidents reported for 16-year old drivers that coincides with the implementation of the learner’s permit and related requirements in 1997, the data available for analysis does not clearly establish what effect if any, these requirements had on the reduction.

ACCIDENTS INVOLVING DRIVERS SUBJECT TO LEARNER’S PERMIT REQUIREMENTS

Requirements for 16- and 17-year Old Drivers

The first change in requirements for 16- and 17-year old drivers occurred in 1996 when the legislature established learner’s permit requirements (PA 96-248). The act required 16- and 17-year old drivers to obtain a learner’s permit and operate with it under instruction for at least six months before they could apply for a driver’s license. It also (1) increased from six to eight the number of clock hours of behind-the-wheel instruction these drivers must get when receiving instruction through school-based drivers’ education programs or licensed commercial driving schools and (2) prohibited drivers operating under learners’ permits from driving on a limited access highway for the first 90 days they hold the permit. These requirements went into effect on January 1, 1997.

However early in the 1997 session, the legislature made several changes to the requirements about to be implemented, which went into effect immediately (PA 97-1). The two most significant were (1) reducing the period of time a permit holder must operate under the permit from 180 days to 120 days if they receive their instruction from drivers’ education training or commercial driving instruction and (2) reducing the limited access highway driving restriction from the first 90 days to the first 60 days under these same circumstances. (Another law passed later in the session further reduced the limited access highway restriction to 30 days for those receiving instruction from a commercial driving school. )

These requirements remained substantially unchanged until 2003 when the legislature passed PA 03-171 and PA 03-265 which, among other things, (1) eliminated the limited access highway operation permit restriction; (2) increased the mandatory safe driving practices course all 16- and 17-year old drivers must complete prior to licensure from five to eight hours, and the alcohol and drug impact component of that course from two to four hours; and (3) established restrictions on the number of passengers 16- and 17-year old drivers may transport during certain periods after they are licensed to drive. Specifically, these restrictions are: (1) for the first three months of licensure, they may only transport one passenger who may only be (a) a parent or guardian who is at least age 25 and a licensed driver, (b) a DMV-licensed driving instructor, or (c) any other person who is at least age 20 and who has held a suspension-free driver’s license for at least the preceding four years and (2) for the fourth through sixth months of licensure, they may transport, in addition to the one person noted above, only other immediate family members. In addition, these 2003 changes prohibit a 16- or 17-year old driver from (1) operating a vanpool vehicle, and (2) ever carrying more passengers than a vehicle has seat-belt equipped seating positions. If the 16- or 17-year old has an endorsement to operate a motorcycle, he may not carry any passengers on it for the first six months. These requirements applied to anyone who applied for a learner’s permit on or after October 1, 2003.

Accidents Involving 16- and 17-year Old Drivers Since Initiation of Learner’s Permit Requirement

This report examines only accident data that might apply to the learner’s permit requirement that went into effect in January 1997. Sufficient accident data is not yet available through the DOT to provide an assessment of changes that may have occurred since initiation of the passenger restrictions.

Table 1 shows accidents involving 16- through 19-year old drivers from 1995 through 2002. The accidents shown are only those in which a teen driver was involved and was considered to have been responsible.

The data is shown graphically below in Figure 1.

The DOT accident statistics for teen drivers found responsible for accidents show a clear decrease for 16-year old drivers after 1996. This decrease was 23. 7% in 1997, from 1,947 accidents for which they were found responsible to 1,486 accidents. There was a further decrease of 16. 3% in 1998, from 1,486 accidents to 1,244. Thus, after the first two years that the learner’s permit requirement was in effect, the total number of accidents for which 16-year old drivers were found responsible was a total of 36. 1% lower than in 1996—the year prior to the new requirement. Since 1998, the number of accidents for which 16-year old drivers were found responsible has increased somewhat, but still remains below the 1996 level—1,570 accidents in 2003 compared to 1,947 in 1996 (-19. 4%).

In contrast, the number of accidents involving 17-year old, 18-year old, and 19-year old drivers for which they were fund responsible shows no similar decrease and, in fact their accidents have increased over the 1996 levels. For 17-year old drivers, who also fall under the learner’s permit requirements when being initially licensed to drive, the number of at-fault accidents was essentially unchanged in 1997 over the 1996 level of 2,375 accidents, increased slightly in 1998 to 2,502 (+5. 3%), peaked at 3,005 accidents in 2000 (+26. 5% over the 1996 level), and has remained slightly below the 2000 level through 2002.

However, while the reduced number of at-fault accidents involving 16-year old drivers clearly coincides with adoption of the learner’s permit requirement, it may not necessarily be the case that the decrease is the result of the permit requirement itself. This is because available data on the number of 16-year old licensed drivers in the post-1996 period suggests that there may have been significantly fewer 16-year old licensed drivers after 1996. If true, this factor alone might account for the decreased number of at-fault accidents for 16-year olds. Based on the FHWA data and an estimate of possible 16-year old drivers in 1996 subsequently provided by DMV, it appears that the number of licensed 16-year olds may have decreased by more than 45% from 1996 to 1998.

The licensing data was taken from the Federal Highway Administration’s (FHWA) annual Highway Statistics publication series. This report presents licensed driver figures reported by state authorities to FHWA each year. While it may be assumed that these state authorities are the motor vehicle licensing agencies, we have not been able to verify if DMV is providing this data to FHWA directly.

Table 2 shows the licensing data taken from the FHWA Highway Statistics series for drivers age 16-19 for the period from 1996 through 2002. The table also shows the figure DMV provided for 16-year old licensees in 1996 that, while lower than the FHWA figure, is fairly close and thus provides at least partial verification of the number reported by FHWA.

The licensing data in Table 2 show a significantly smaller number of licensed 16-year olds after 1996. We cannot explain why this might have occurred. With the exception of a dip in licensed 17-year olds in 1997, the licensed driver figures for 17-year olds, 18-year olds, and 19-year olds are fairly consistent from 1996 through 2002 with small variations up or down from year to year. If these data are accurate, they support the idea that the real reduction in at-fault accidents for 16-year old drivers reflected in the DOT accident statistics in 1997 and after are probably due to the fact that so many fewer 16-year olds were licensed in those years. Comparing the 1998 FHWA number for licensed 16-year olds with the 1996 FHWA number yields a decrease of 49. 1% in licensed 16-year olds. Comparing the 1998 FHWA number to the lower 1996 estimate provided by DMV yields a smaller, but still significant decrease of 45. 8%. In either case, the decreased number of licensed 16-year olds shown in this data tends to support the idea that the decrease in at-fault accidents may be primarily due to the decreased number of licensed 16-year olds. This smaller number of licensed 16-year olds after initiation of the learner’s permit requirement in January 1997 might be due to the existence of that requirement, but it might be coincidental as well.

If the licensing data is accurate, it actually suggests an increase in the at-fault accident rate for 16-year old drivers despite the overall decrease in the actual number of at-fault accidents. For example, if the 1,947 at-fault accidents for 16-year old drivers in 1996 is divided by the 17,836 licensed 16-year olds in 1996 as reported in the FHWA data, it yields an at-fault accident rate of 10. 9 at-fault accidents per 100 licensed 16-year olds. Using the lower DMV estimated number of licensed 1996 16-year olds of 16,750 yields an at-fault accident rate of 11. 6 per 100 licensed 16-year olds. A similar calculation using the data for 1998 (1,244 at-fault accidents and 9,086 licensed 16-year olds) yields an at-fault accident rate of 13. 7 per 100 licensed 16-year olds—which is higher than the rate for 16-year old licensees in 1996 whether you use the FHWA or the DMV estimate of licensed 16-year olds. The at-fault accident rate per 100 licensed 16-year olds is also higher in all the other years (1999-2002) than the rate in 1996.

Drawing any conclusions about the relationship between the learner’s permit requirement and the change in at-fault accident performance of 16-year old drivers since 1996 is problematic without greater confidence in the accuracy of available licensing data for teen drivers.

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