2002 Mid-Term Primary Dates and Voter Turnout

This Backgrounder provides information from other states on when primaries were scheduled in recent mid-term election years and on voter turnout at the 2002 primary elections. It also includes an analysis of the relationship between primary timing and turnout in 2002.

The data in this report comes from the Office of the Secretary of the State; the Federal Election Commission (2002 U. S. Congressional Primary Election Dates and Candidate Filing Deadlines for Ballot Access); and the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate's (CSAE) report "Primary Turnout Narrowly Misses Record Lows," issued September 26, 2002.

Primary Dates

The tables below list the months for primary elections in mid-term (non-Presidential year) elections for candidates for federal offices.

Table 1: 1994 Primary Election Dates

Table 2: 1998 Primary Election Dates

Table 3: 2002 Primary Election Dates

Louisiana does not hold primaries for federal candidates and does not appear in these lists. There is little variation in the schedule from year to year. For example, Georgia's July primary was moved to August in 2002. In 1998, California moved its primary from June to March.

Figure 1: Mid-Term Primary Schedule: 1994, 1998, and 2002

Overall Primary Turnout

The CSEA's figures on overall turnout for mid-term primary elections nationwide show that voter participation has fallen since 1962. Figure 2 indicates the average percentage of age-eligible people who voted (VAP) in all the states that held statewide primaries in both major parties in the years 1962 - 2002. The figures are the average turnout in all the states that had statewide contests for either governor or the U. S. Senate. In those years, the average national turnout spiked to a high of 33. 6% in 1966 and then decreased gradually over time until 1998. Turnout increased slightly from 1998 (16. 8%) to 2002 (17. 0%).

Figure 2: Overall Primary Turnout: 1962-2002

Source: Committee for the Study of the American Electorate

Primary Turnout in 2002

The 2002 mid-term primary election turnout figures provide a snapshot of voter participation. Differences in turnout can be attributed to a number of factors, including local issues, citizens' views of their stake in the primary election outcome, the level of campaign activity and advertising, whether the race is for an open seat, a challenger's level of competitiveness, and the month when the primary is held.

Table 4 shows the 2002 turnout in states that had statewide primary elections in both parties based on VAP. States are listed according to the month when the primary was held. The table shows the average turnout percentage by month. Figure 3 compares the turnout by month.

Figure 3: Percentage Turnout in 2002 Statewide Primaries by Month

For more information, the CSEA's complete report is available in the Legislative Library. It includes a lengthy description of the data they use to calculate turnout. For example, the voting age population figure is the U. S. Census Bureau's estimate of the November election year population over age 18. It is not based on the number of registered voters. Use of the census figures for calculating voter turnout is flawed to the extent that they include legal and illegal aliens who cannot vote; convicted felons and ex-felons who, in some states, are disenfranchised; and some people in mental institutions deemed incompetent and unable to vote. They do not include American citizens overseas who are entitled to vote, the Census undercount (those who can vote but were overlooked in the Census count), or those who become naturalized citizens between the time the estimate is made and Election Day. But the Census figures are used because they are the most consistent and historically available ones.

Turnout in Connecticut Statewide Primaries

Connecticut's primary law was adopted in 1956. The first primaries for statewide office were held in 1970. Table 5 below shows the voter turnout in those primaries, all of which were held in September except for the first Democratic Party primary, which occurred in August. The turnout figure is the percentage of the total number enrolled in the party conducting the primary who actually voted. Because the turnout figure is based

on the number of people eligible to vote in a primary (actually registered and enrolled in a party), the figures have a different basis and thus are higher than the turnout figures noted above calculated by the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate.

Table 5: Turnout of Party Voters in Connecticut Primaries, 1970-1998

Source: Office of the Secretary of the State, Elections Services Division

This Backgrounder was prepared by Mary M. Janicki, OLR Assistant Director

2002-R-0866