You asked for an analysis of the rate of incumbents' reelection in the states with public financing programs for candidates and a comparison with the rate in states without public financing. You also

asked what percentage of incumbent candidates in Connecticut for statewide offices won in the last two elections for those positions.

SUMMARY

Of the 23 states with public financing programs, 15 provide campaign funds for candidates; the others give funds to political parties (see OLR report 99-R-1102, Public Financing Update). Of the 15, Arizona, Maine, and Vermont have new programs that have not yet taken effect. In the remaining 12, the incumbent reelection rate for the offices on which we have been able to collect data is 76%. We have requested but not yet received information from several other states with public financing programs and will update this report when we receive it. The sample size included here is too small to draw any conclusions on the effect of public financing programs on reelection rates. In 10 states, 16 of 21 incumbents won. Except in Rhode Island where the incumbent lost in a primary and in New Jersey where Governor Florio lost in 1993, every incumbent governor who ran for reelection in the last two elections won.

The incumbent reelection rate for those who run nationwide generally is over 90%. In the last two state elections in Connecticut, five of six statewide office incumbents who ran for reelection, or 83.3%, won.

INCUMBENT REELECTION IN PUBLIC FINANCING STATES

The incumbent reelection rate is based on the number of incumbent candidates who run for the same office. Some run for other offices, retire, or are ineligible to run due to term limits. The calculation in Table 1 is for the last two elections for statewide offices, in most cases 1994 and 1998.

Table 1: Incumbent Reelections in States With Public Financing For Candidates

State	Offices Covered	Incumbent Reelection Rate
Florida	Governor Cabinet officials	100% (1 reelected of 1 who ran) 62.5% (5 of 8)
Hawaii	Governor Statewide officers Legislator	Unavailable Unavailable Unavailable
Kentucky	Governor/Lt. Governor	100% (1 of 1)
Maryland	Governor/Lt. Governor	100% (1 of 1)
Massachusetts	Governor Statewide officers	100% (2 of 2) Unavailable
Michigan	Governor	100% (1 of 1)
Minnesota	Governor Statewide officers Legislator	100% (1 of 1) Unavailable Unavailable
Nebraska	Legislator	Not applicable*
New Jersey	Governor	50% (1 of 2)

Table 1 Continued

State	Offices Covered	Incumbent Reelection Rate
North Carolina	Governor	100% (1 of 1)
Rhode Island	Governor Statewide officers	50% (1 of 2) Unavailable
Wisconsin	Governor Statewide officers Legislator	100% (1 of 1) Unavailable Unavailable

* A candidate does not receive public financing funds unless his opponent (1) does not participate in the program and (2) overspends the voluntary spending limit. To date, no candidate has had such an opponent, thus none has received public financing.

GENERAL INCUMBENT REELECTION

Typically, for U.S. Congress and state officials, the incumbent reelection rate is over 90%. A 1994 National Conference of State Legislatures report shows that, nationwide, the incumbent reelection rate for state senators was 92% and 90% for House members ("Incumbent Reelection Rates in 1994 State Legislative Elections," http://www.ncsl.org/programs/legman/elect/incmb1.htm).

INCUMBENT REELECTION IN CONNECTICUT

In races for statewide offices in 1994 and 1998, five of the six (83.3%) incumbents who ran for reelection won. Paul Silvester was the only incumbent who was defeated in the race for the office he held.

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